Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 21.774509 23.672131 25.722772 28.114449 30.841280 33.870096 37.512168
2025-10-26 18.673187 21.245915 24.220403 27.956553 32.586415 38.221521 45.737600
2025-11-02 16.475446 19.387291 22.929818 27.646069 33.903739 42.144435 54.227681
2025-11-09 14.965288 18.088108 22.046878 27.579230 35.366283 46.376507 64.044340
2025-11-16 13.738916 16.965045 21.193284 27.345255 36.454043 50.174534 74.131405
2025-11-23 12.740166 16.013880 20.426120 27.071687 37.360110 53.777852 84.853469
2025-11-30 11.916200 15.208076 19.753366 26.811195 38.186676 57.340716 96.560192
2025-12-07 11.254077 14.560913 19.227934 26.681121 39.157757 61.288725 110.361803
2025-12-14 10.636110 13.922450 18.648365 26.382178 39.771233 64.675551 124.253145
2025-12-21 10.412232 13.829041 18.860009 27.354322 42.720648 73.191891 154.375921
2025-12-28 9.941482 13.335046 18.413291 27.175788 43.529722 77.514963 175.912965
2026-01-04 9.555133 12.940241 18.086351 27.158428 44.629007 82.730622 203.426402
2026-01-11 9.259637 12.671339 17.948074 27.473998 46.478407 90.313788 245.369615
2026-01-18 8.895298 12.274433 17.573683 27.326805 47.362020 95.833470 285.242209
2026-01-25 8.533212 11.860307 17.141498 27.028601 47.878835 100.584245 327.445596
2026-02-01 8.243308 11.544058 16.850230 26.964832 48.903584 107.102667 387.500264
2026-02-08 7.948006 11.203104 16.493636 26.738714 49.522390 112.676479 452.009918
2026-02-15 7.668409 10.873359 16.135067 26.474006 50.010814 118.059946 526.698355
2026-02-22 7.410789 10.567062 15.798444 26.221829 50.493533 123.651703 617.529917
2026-03-01 7.190339 10.311609 15.535813 26.095888 51.275633 130.639601 743.623543
2026-03-08 6.959662 10.028826 15.208247 25.806361 51.595755 136.132524 877.448872
2026-03-15 6.920643 10.064536 15.454534 26.747754 55.352616 156.916086 1346.609944
2026-03-22 6.728456 9.831604 15.195599 26.574906 56.021345 165.288664 1700.525593